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Titre : 3 Idlib Battle Scenarios
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3 Idlib Battle Scenarios

In yesterday's post I mentioned that the Turkish move to label HTS as a "terror group" was a green light for the move on Idlib. Some version of an advance on Idlib.

Turkey Green Lights Syria/Russian Idlib Op - Hayat Tarir Al Sham Designated A Terror Group


Last month I'd been hoping for a more restrained, controlled return of the Syria's land. But that doesn't appear to have come to pass. Al Jazeera has an interesting article covering the 3 possible battle for Idlib scenarios.

Image from here

AlJaz  

Scenario 1- The first one is that Turkey and Russia would agree to uphold the de-escalation zone in Idlib, providing that Turkey deal with the HTS problem. Over the past several months, Turkey has been trying to persuade the HTS to dissolve itself and melt within the Turkey-backed Free Syrian Army factions.

As reported yesterday- that failed. 

Scenario 2-  If Turkey fails to deal with the HTS, the second scenario becomes very probable. It would allow for a limited Russian-led military action in Idlib to take out the HTS and other "radical" groups. Given the high population density in the area, Russia and even the Syrian regime seem to be trying to avoid a massive military attack - something that Iran would like to undertake.

 It was a given the Astana 3 had alternative plans- Recall my comment in yesterday's post?

PennySeptember 4, 2018 at 1:27 PM

fyi: I changed the post headline to reflect that the whatever Turkey, Russia, Iran & Syria have worked out should the HTS negotiations have failed, regarding Idlib, will move ahead.

It's my opinion there would have been multiple plans to deal with multiple contingencies..

So we might be looking at some type of limited action in Idlib akin to a Scenario 2
This plans are likely to be discussed and agreed upon in Iran on the 7th of September.
Covered here :A Landmark Caspian Sea Agreement. Tabriz Talks & Obstructing NATO?

•  Russia says summit to help clarify military situation in Syria's Idlib - TASS via Reuters

MOSCOW, Sept 5 (Reuters) - Russia’s deputy foreign minister said on Wednesday that the military situation in the Syrian rebel-held province of Idlib would become clearer after a summit in Tehran on Friday, the TASS news agency reported.

“I think the situation from a military point of view will become clearer after, among other things, the leaders of the three guarantor states (Russia, Iran, Turkey) hold talks on Friday (September 7),” Sergei Ryabkov told a news conference.

 Al Jaz- Scenario 3, the all out battle scenario :"The third and the most feared scenario is an all-out offensive in Idlib. This scenario is unlikely at this stage because it is very costly both politically and militarily. It would also lead to a humanitarian disaster, a massive refugee crisis and destruction at a large scale. It would destroy the evolving partnership between Russia and Turkey and lead to the collapse of the Astana process.

It will put more pressure on the already strained Russian-European relations as it would lead to a new wave of refugees. The US has also warned against a massive attack in Idlib and stated that it would intervene in case chemical weapons are used."

Lastly, an all-out attack in Idlib runs counter to the new Russian strategy, aiming at returning the Syrian refugees back home and starting the reconstruction process with aid from Europe and the Gulf states.

Image from here

All the death and destruction that would result in a full out military action would be very negative from a public relations point of view- Which could work against Russia and Syria and may explain the slow measured moves thus far in Idlib. 
In yesterday's post it was suggested via a bunch of questions just which party/ies would benefit from the worst case scenario... No one answered the question- though the answer is very obvious. At least, it is obvious in my opinion?

Gosh, which party/ies would want to have a huge humanitarian cost and gravely damage Turkey?? Along with Syria, Russia and Iran???
Let’s see what party...........
1- Fomented a coup
2- Waged financial warfare
3- Conducted Kangaroo court cases
4- Instigated Sanctions
5- Manipulated money markets
etc.,

 The beneficiaries are Israel. US. UK. First and foremost.

Recapping: 

Scenario 1 failed. Unsurprisingly.
Scenario 2 is most probable but we'll have a better idea in a couple of days
Scenario 3 is the most beneficial to the coalition aka the terror trio of Israel, US, UK.
In fact the US and coalition allies are doing all they can to create a scenario 3 situation.

Some news from today:

1-UN Security Council Meeting Friday requested by Nikki Haley

Link

 The U.N. Security Council will hold a meeting on Friday on the situation in Syria’s Idlib province, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley said on Tuesday, warning Syria’s government not to use chemical weapons ahead of a widely expected military offensive there.

“If there are chemical weapons that are used, we know exactly who’s going to use them,” Haley said.

↓- Not a surprise- actually as would be expected

2-US takes advantage of Idlib crisis to increase support for PKK/YPG in Syria

The Washington administration is increasing arms support to the YPG/PKK terror group by using the conflict in Idlib for its own political and military interests

The U.S., taking advantage of the rising tensions in last-opposition-held stronghold of Idlib, is sending military reinforcements to areas occupied by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) terror group east of the Euphrates River in Syria.

It delivered 200 truckloads of ammunition on Tuesday to Syria’s Raqqa, which is currently under the occupation of the Syrian offshoot of the PKK, the People’s Protection Units (YPG).

From here

• Coalition Delivers 800 Trucks & Equipment to YPG/PKK Held Territory in Syria

•  US Installs Advanced Radar System in Rojava, Preparing for No-fly Zone: Source

   Earlier posts regarding Idlib:

  • August 9: How Russia, Turkey, and Iran are Going to Avoid a Battle for Idlib

  •  August 10: Turkey and Russia Coordinate for the Move on Idlib- Moving Terrorists Eastward?

  •  August 15 :Firas Tlass: SAA Will Invade Idleb with Russian and Turkish Help

  • Finally August 16: The Sticky Situation of the Idlib Offensive

   

Thus articles 3 Idlib Battle Scenarios

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