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To better match demand

It's hard to slim down a bus network without people noticing.

TfL can't shorten a route or cancel one completely without a public consultation. But what they can do to a bus route, with utterly minimal fuss, is reduce its frequency.

They even have a phrase for it.

"To better match how often buses run with demand"

Cut the number of journeys that a bus makes and plenty of money can be saved. Fewer vehicles are required to run the service, fewer people need to be employed to drive the buses, and cheaper contracts with bus companies can be agreed. Even cutting just one bus an hour removes almost 10000 journeys a year, and that's a sizeable economy.

Today's a particularly good example of TfL cutting back bus services by stealth. Nine buses are having their frequencies cut, including two that go past my front door, which is why I have a particular interest. This table shows today's changes to normal daytime frequencies (or weekend frequencies for nightbuses).

Route	Frequency yesterday	Frequency today	Cut in frequency
29	every 5 mins	every 6 mins	2 buses an hour
205	every 7-8 mins	every 8 mins	1 bus every 2 hours
269	every 10 mins	every 12 mins	1 bus an hour
488	every 12 mins	every 15 mins	1 bus an hour
H14	every 8-9 mins	every 7-8 mins	gain 1 bus an hour
N8	every 7-8 mins	every 10 mins	2 buses an hour
N29	every 3-4 mins	every 8 mins	8 buses an hour
N91	every 15 mins	every 30 mins	2 buses an hour
N98	every 10 mins	every 15 mins	2 buses an hour
N207	every 7-8 mins	every 10 mins	2 buses an hour

There are of course several good reasons for reducing bus frequencies, particularly if fewer passengers are using them. Greater congestion in central London slows traffic to a crawl and deters people from boarding buses. That may well be why routes 29 and 205 have been cut back. Better train services, for example the introduction of the Night Tube, divert passengers away from slower modes of transport. That may well explain the cull of nightbuses. It's clearly pointless maintaining high frequencies merely to transport empty seats around the capital, so cutting back makes sense, and the consequent financial savings are a happy by-product.

But that cut to the 488 looks a little more suspect. The 488's been running every 12 minutes since it began in 2008, on a minor route from Bromley-by-Bow to Clapton and then on to Dalston. Now suddenly it's dropping back to every 15 minutes, one fewer bus every hour, for no readily obvious reason. This only increases the average waiting time by 90 seconds, so most passengers won't even notice, but either the bus has been running too often for the last nine years or this is a cost saving.

It's not all bad news. Route H14 is increasing in frequency by one bus an hour, this out in the suburbs of Harrow, providing valuable additional outer London capacity. But the overall direction of change is frequency contraction.

For example this happened last month...

Route	Frequency before	Frequency after	Cut in frequency
5	every 6-7 mins	every 7-8 mins	1 bus an hour
N15	every 7-8 mins	every 10 mins	2 buses an hour

...and this happened in July...

Route	Frequency before	Frequency after	Cut in frequency
14	every 6-7 mins	every 8 mins	1½ buses an hour
22	every 7-8 mins	every 8 mins	1 bus every 2 hrs
31	every 6 mins	every 7-8 mins	2 buses an hour
63	every 5-6 mins	every 7-8 mins	3 buses an hour
74	every 8 mins	every 10 mins	1½ buses an hour
253	every 5-6 mins	every 6 mins	1 bus an hour
384	every 15 mins	every 20 mins	1 bus an hour
C1	every 10-11 mins	every 12 mins	1 bus every 2 hrs
C11	every 8 mins	every 10 mins	1½ buses an hour

...and this happened in June.

Route	Frequency before	Frequency after	Cut in frequency
48	every 8 mins	every 10 mins	1½ buses an hour
176	every 8 mins	every 10 mins	1½ buses an hour
390	every 8 mins	every 6 mins	gain 2½ buses an hour
E3	every 6 mins	every 7-8 mins	2 buses an hour
N73	every 12 mins	every 15 mins	1 bus an hour

Route 390 is a special case because it's been extended to Victoria, and the additional journeys are replacing other buses diverted elsewhere. But overall the relentless underlying theme is "fewer buses", with 24 bus frequencies reduced over the past three months and only two increased.

Obviously it pays to provide a bus service which matches public demand, otherwise TfL are simply throwing public money away. If more people are travelling by train or tube or app-taxi, then running less frequent buses is surely fine. Most passengers won't even spot there aren't as many, so you could argue where's the harm?

With money tight it must be better to cut frequencies than actual routes, so that a comprehensive bus network can be maintained across the capital. But it does feel as if a tipping point has been reached, and perhaps passed, with an increasing population now being served by fewer buses.

Meanwhile this is what's happening in a fortnight's time out in Hounslow and Hillingdon.

Route	Frequency before	Frequency after	Cut in frequency
222	every 8 mins	every 10 mins	1½ buses an hour

How many more buses will be stolen away before the general public notices?

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